Publications

Bruguet, M., Thomas, A., & Le Saout, R. (2025). Weather Effects in Energy Seasonal Adjustment : An Application to France Energy Consumption The Energy Journal, vol. 46, n°5

Bardon P., Massol O., Thomas A. (2025). Greening Aviation with Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Insights from decarbonization scenarios. Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 374.

Thomas A., Massol O., Sévi B. (2022), How are Day-ahead Prices Informative for Predicting the Next Day’s Consumption of Natural Gas? Evidence from France, The Energy Journal, vol. 43, n°5

Peer-reviewed proceedings in international conferences

Peignon, J., Rossi, F., Thomas, A. (2026), Time Series Forecasting in the Presence of Explosive Bubbles, Proceedings of ESANN 2026 (European Symposium on Artificial Neural Networks, Computational Intelligence and Machine Learning)

Working papers

Non causal econometrics

Elena Dumitrescu, Julien Peignon, Arthur Thomas (2026). Tail-aware density forecasting of locally explosive time series: a neural network approach. [Working Paper][Arxiv link] [Online Appendix]

Gilles De Truchis, Arthur Thomas (2025) Laurent series expansion for MA($\infty$) representation of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. [Working Paper] Revise and resubmit at Journal of Time Series Analysis

Gilles De Truchis, Fries Sébastien, Arthur Thomas (2025). Forecasting extreme trajectories using semi-norm representations. [Working Paper] Submitted

Gilles De Truchis Fries Sébastien, Arthur Thomas (2025). Prediction of bubbles in presence of α-stable aggregates moving averages.

Gilles De Truchis, Elena Dumitrescu, Sébastien Fries, Arthur Thomas (2024). Bet on a bubble asset? An optimal portfolio allocation strategy (2024). [Paper] [Online Appendix]

Stéphane Auray, Zakaria Moussa, Arthur Thomas (2026). Reading the Future of Oil: A Noncausal Approach to Supply News Shocks, USAEE Working Paper No. 21-490, Jan. 13, 2026. [Working Paper] Submitted

Financial Econometrics

Ilya Archakov, Yannick Le Pen, Zakaria Moussa, Arthur Thomas (2024). Regime Switching for Dynamic EquiCorrelation. [Paper]

Energy Economics

Olivier Massol, Eduard Civel, Arthur Thomas (2025). Unfair Trade in the Circular Economy? Price Dynamics in Chinese and European Waste to Biofuel Industries (2025). [Working paper] Submitted

Zakaria Moussa, Benoît Sévi, Arthur Thomas (2021). Real-time demand in U.S. natural gas price forecasting: the role of temperature data, USAEE Working Paper No. 21-507, 21 Sep 2021.

Ongoing works

Eduardo S. Marques,Olivier Massol, Simon Quemin, Arthur Thomas (2026). Decomposing Carbon Prices to Analyze their Determinants: A Causal-Noncausal Application to the EU ETS.

Gilles De Truchis, Arthur Thomas, Ludivine Vaudree (2025), Deconvolution and Filtering of Non-Causal Alpha-Stable Processes.

Gilles De Truchis, Fries Sébastien, Arthur Thomas (2026). Multivariate seminorm representation for α -stable moving average processes and path prediction.