Publications

Bruguet, M., Thomas, A., & Le Saout, R. (2025). Weather Effects in Energy Seasonal Adjustment : An Application to France Energy Consumption The Energy Journal, vol. 46, n°5

Bardon P., Massol O., Thomas A. (2025). Greening Aviation with Sustainable Aviation Fuels: Insights from decarbonization scenarios. Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 374.

Thomas A., Massol O., Sévi B. (2022), How are Day-ahead Prices Informative for Predicting the Next Day’s Consumption of Natural Gas? Evidence from France, The Energy Journal, vol. 43, n°5

Working papers

Non causal econometrics

Elena Dumitrescu, Julien Peignon, Arthur Thomas (2026). Tail-aware density forecasting of locally explosive time series: a neural network approach. [Working Paper][Arxiv link] [Online Appendix]

Gilles De Truchis, Arthur Thomas (2025) Laurent series expansion for MA($\infty$) representation of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive processes. [Working Paper] Revise and resubmit at Journal of Time Series Analysis

Gilles De Truchis, Fries Sébastien, Arthur Thomas (2025). Forecasting extreme trajectories using semi-norm representations. [Working Paper] Submitted

Gilles De Truchis Fries Sébastien, Arthur Thomas (2026). Prediction of bubbles in presence of α-stable aggregates moving averages. [Online Supplement]

Gilles De Truchis, Elena Dumitrescu, Sébastien Fries, Arthur Thomas (2024). Bet on a bubble asset? An optimal portfolio allocation strategy (2024). [Paper] [Online Appendix]

Stéphane Auray, Zakaria Moussa, Arthur Thomas (2026). Reading the Future of Oil: A Noncausal Approach to Supply News Shocks, USAEE Working Paper No. 21-490, Jan. 13, 2026. [Working Paper] Submitted

Financial Econometrics

Ilya Archakov, Yannick Le Pen, Zakaria Moussa, Arthur Thomas (2024). Regime Switching for Dynamic EquiCorrelation. [Paper]

Energy Economics

Olivier Massol, Eduard Civel, Arthur Thomas (2025). Unfair Trade in the Circular Economy? Price Dynamics in Chinese and European Waste to Biofuel Industries (2025). [Working paper] Submitted

Zakaria Moussa, Benoît Sévi, Arthur Thomas (2021). Real-time demand in U.S. natural gas price forecasting: the role of temperature data, USAEE Working Paper No. 21-507, 21 Sep 2021.

Ongoing works

Eduardo S. Marques,Olivier Massol, Simon Quemin, Arthur Thomas (2026). Decomposing Carbon Prices to Analyze their Determinants: A Causal-Noncausal Application to the EU ETS.

Gilles De Truchis, Arthur Thomas, Ludivine Vaudree (2025), Deconvolution and Filtering of Non-Causal Alpha-Stable Processes.

Gilles De Truchis, Fries Sébastien, Arthur Thomas (2026). Multivariate seminorm representation for α-stable moving average processes and path prediction.